The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA), as an important achievement of East Asian regional cooperation, officially came into effect in 2010, providing institutional guarantees for wide-ranging tariff reductions and market access facilitation between China and the ten ASEAN countries. This paper innovatively adopts a combined analytical framework of the Constant Market Share (CMS) model and the extended gravity model of trade. From the perspective of trade growth, the paper explores the structural changes and inter-industry synergy effects of Sino-ASEAN trade dynamics after the implementation of CAFTA. From the perspective of trade growth, this paper reveals the dynamic performance of scale effects, structural effects, competitive effects, and second-order effects of bilateral trade growth after the implementation of CAFTA through the decomposition of the CMS model, and analyzes the driving factors behind these effects. The research shows that CAFTA has not only significantly promoted the growth of bilateral trade flows, but also effectively promoted the process of regional economic integration between China and ASEAN by enhancing industrial collaboration and optimizing resource allocation within the region. This conclusion provides important theoretical support and practical reference for deepening regional economic cooperation and optimizing the design of free trade agreements in the future.

Zhengxi Li. Empirical Analysis of the Sources of Trade Flow in the CAFTA Based on the CMS Model. International Journal of Business Management and Economics and Trade (2024), Vol. 6, Issue 1: 1-10. https://doi.org/10.38007/IJBMET.2025.060101.

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