With the rapid increase in global data volume and intensified market demand fluctuations, retail supply chains urgently need to improve inventory coordination efficiency through market data-driven demand forecasting. This study focuses on the dual channel supply chain of direct sales (manufacturer+traditional retailer) and distribution (manufacturer+traditional retailer+electronic retailer). Based on the two-stage characteristics of big data technology, a demand forecasting formation mechanism is constructed. The Bayesian Zuckerberg game model and reverse induction method are used to analyze the optimal decisions and expected profits in four information sharing states, and explore the equilibrium strategy of bidirectional information sharing; Incorporate manufacturer product quality improvement and information leakage behavior into the distributed structure, divide into five information states, and study wholesale price, quality improvement investment, and order quantity decisions. Research has found that in direct sales supply chains, traditional retailers are unable to obtain value-added benefits through reverse sharing, and information equilibrium only exists in the cases of forward sharing and no sharing. The intensity of competition affects manufacturers' willingness to share information; In a distributed supply chain, manufacturer decisions are driven by the level of product quality improvement technology and the motivation for information leakage. Information leakage behavior depends on the accuracy of shared channel information - competitive channels tend to leak when their technology is low to enhance their competitiveness, and avoid leakage when the technology is mature. The downstream implementation of information symmetry requires manufacturers to ensure information security and both channels to recognize the consumer stimulus effect of quality improvement; If information is leaked, retailers will only follow up on sharing when consumers highly value product quality. The research has expanded the theory of dual channel supply chain operation management, filled the gap in research on bidirectional sharing and leakage under asymmetric information, provided management insights for enterprises to formulate information sharing strategies and avoid leakage risks, and helped supply chain lean manufacturing and agile production.

Xinyan Qian. Market Data–Driven Demand Forecasting and Inventory Coordination Mechanisms in Retail Supply Chains. International Journal of Business Management and Economics and Trade (2026), Vol. 7, Issue 2: 1-10. https://doi.org/10.38007/IJBMET.2026.070201.

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